Broncos 7-round mock draft: J.J. McCarthy, welcome to Denver (2024)

In our first Broncos mock draft in early February, Denver nabbed All-American tight end Brock Bowers and addressed the quarterback position with late-round flyer Joe Milton of Tennessee. In our second mock draft in March, the Broncos traded back in the first round, selected edge rusher Jared Verse with the 17th pick and punted the task of finding a franchise quarterback to 2025.

Our third mock draft, dropping with the real event only four days away, reflects a greater urgency to find the permanent answer at quarterback. It reflects an aggressiveness I believe 60-year-old coach Sean Payton will have as he enters his second season in Denver, knowing his hope of rebuilding a downtrodden franchise hinges on him finding an answer at the most important position. It also reflects the dash of luck the Broncos might need to land a top-ranked passer as a handful of other QB-needy teams jostle for position.

Let’s get our final mock draft of 2024, built with the help of contributions from “The Beast” draft guide authored by The Athletic prospect guru Dane Brugler:

Round 1, No. 8: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan

Trade: Broncos send No. 12, No. 76 (third round), No. 203 (sixth) and a 2025 second-round pick to the Atlanta Falcons for No. 8 and No. 109 (fourth)

You can find plenty of mock exercises that put quarterbacks in the first four slots of the draft, which would be an NFL record. I’m counting on precedent to give Denver a chance. Here’s how it would look:

The Patriots at No. 3 would make sense as a trade-back candidate given that both the lead front office figure (Eliot Wolf) and head coach (Jerod Mayo) are in their first seasons on the job and the team has significant building to do in the post-Bill Belichick era. Collecting a trove of picks for the No. 3 selection, and waiting to start the clock on a franchise quarterback, would be a prudent move. The Vikings, with the two first-round picks, are well-equipped to jump into New England’s spot and take the quarterback of their choice. If Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels go first and second to the Bears and Commanders, respectively, it’s possible the Vikings could be after McCarthy. But there has been enough connecting the dots between Minnesota and Drake Maye to believe the North Carolina quarterback could be their choice.

The question from there: How far would the Broncos need to climb to get McCarthy? Following a run of three straight quarterbacks, I think three straight wide receivers will come off the board — Marvin Harrison to the Cardinals at No. 4; Malik Nabers to the Chargers at No. 5; Rome Odunze to the Giants at No. 6 — and the Titans will take Notre Dame offensive tackle Joe Alt with the No. 7 pick.

The No. 8 spot presents an opportunity for the Broncos to make a jump and hold off competition from teams like the Patriots (remember, they moved back in this scenario) or Raiders — and do so while preserving their first-round pick in next year’s draft.

McCarthy would give Payton a young quarterback to jumpstart an offensive restructuring as the team begins life without Russell Wilson. The Broncos want to build a stronger and more consistent rushing offense and layer play-action concepts around it. That system would allow McCarthy to play and develop in Year 1. There are legitimate questions about how ready he’ll be given the relatively limited playing time he had at Michigan, but his third-down numbers illustrate a quarterback who was entirely capable of making plays when the ball was in his hands — what Payton calls the high-dive moments.

“McCarthy’s evaluation feels incomplete, which creates even more projection than normal, but his passing skills, pocket athleticism and mental makeup are all ascending and create optimism for his NFL future,” Brugler wrote. “Although bumps along the way should be expected, he has the package of tools to become an NFL starter early in his career.”

The Broncos have been air-tight about their evaluations at quarterback. There are numerous paths they could take, including waiting to address the position later in the draft. But they worked out McCarthy privately last month, and it’s easy to see Denver being enamored with a quarterback who has won at every turn, compiling a 63-3 record as a starter at the high school and college levels with an Illinois state title and a national championship at Michigan to his credit.

Round 3, No. 89: Jared Wiley, TE, TCU

Trade: Broncos send two fourth-round picks (Nos. 109 and 121) to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for No. 89

Can you see a scenario in which Payton waits more than 100 selections before jumping back into the draft? Me neither. By moving its two fourth-round picks, Denver can pop back into the top 90 and take Wiley, the fourth-ranked tight end by Brugler. The 2023 production from Wiley, a massive target at 6-foot-6 and 249 pounds, immediately stands out. He led all FBS tight ends with eight touchdown receptions last season and also caught a two-point conversion. After struggling in the red zone last season, particularly inside the 10-yard line, the Broncos could certainly use another capable target in that area of the field.

It would be a surprise if the Broncos didn’t add a tight end at some point in the draft. No team had fewer receiving yards at the position in 2023. Greg Dulcich is a talented pass-catcher, but injuries have limited him during his two years in the league and make his future impact difficult to count on. Wiley doesn’t have those same separation traits up the seam, but he has sure hands (he dropped only one pass during 120 career targets) and was a team captain at TCU.

“Wiley is more of a post-up target than a tight end who will consistently create space for himself, but he is a good-sized athlete with blocking toughness and ball skills,” Brugler wrote. “He projects as a rotational Y tight end who can gradually work his way to the top spot on the depth chart.”

Round 4, No. 109: Blake Fisher, OT, Notre Dame

Trade: Broncos send two fifth-round picks (Nos. 136 and 145) to the Atlanta Falcons for No. 109

Fisher could very well be gone by the time the draft reaches this point. Brugler ranks him as the draft’s No. 73 prospect. But I had Denver landing the 6-foot-6, 310-pound tackle in this area of the draft in my second mock and am sticking with the choice here. If there’s anyone primed to end Denver’s streak of drafts without selecting an offensive tackle — none since Garett Bolles in 2017 — it’s Payton, who has routinely invested heavily in the offensive line in the draft during 17 seasons as an NFL head coach. Fisher profiles as the type of player who could thrive under the direction of position coach Zach Strief and could eventually take over at right tackle for another Notre Dame product, Mike McGlinchey.

“Fisher is a big, athletic, finesse blocker who flashes power but falls off too many blocks and needs to introduce more control to his play style before he is ready for NFL competition,” Brugler wrote. “He is a developmental prospect reminiscent of Nicholas Petit-Frere (2022 third-round pick).”

Round 5, No. 147: Gabriel Murphy, Edge, UCLA

Broncos general manager George Paton last week said the team is fond of its depth at outside linebacker. Denver has four players on rookie contracts — Jonathon Cooper, Baron Browning, Nik Bonitto and Drew Sanders — who could be poised to make leaps in 2024. But the need for depth remains.

“We like the group, but you’re always looking at those type of positions,” Paton said of edge rusher and cornerback. “They’re hard to find. If someone falls in your lap, you’re going to take them.”

Murphy spent his first three seasons at North Texas before transferring to UCLA in 2022. After moderate impact during his first year with the Bruins, he broke through playing opposite first-round prospect Laiatu Latu last season, finishing with 16 tackles for loss and eight sacks. His athletic talent alone may make him a third-round prospect — only top edge prospect Dallas Turner had a higher vertical leap at the combine than Murphy’s 39 1/2 inches — but a lack of ideal size (6-2, 247 pounds, 75-inch wingspan) could cause him to fall.

“He was a pass-rushing nuisance in college, because of his skilled hands and quick feet. He has the juice to make an impact as a subpackage rusher who can also play on special teams,” Brugler wrote.

Round 6, No. 207: Cody Schrader, RB, Missouri

Schrader is one of the draft’s better stories. After four years at Division II Truman State, he sought a greater challenge and entered the transfer portal in 2022. He got no FBS offers, but Missouri allowed him to walk on. He entered his first season with the Tigers as the No. 7 running back on the depth chart. In 2023, he led the SEC in rushing at 1,627 yards to go with 14 touchdowns.

The 5-foot-8, 202-pound native of the St. Louis area also is responsible for one of the best lines I read from Brugler’s voluminous and detailed scouting reports: “There are different ways for running backs to force missed tackles, and Schrader’s weapons of choice are determined play speed, jackhammer feet and R-rated violence at contact — he forces defenders to match. He gets stronger as the game goes on, as evidenced by the fact that he posted better yards per carry (7.1) and more first-down carries (23) in the fourth quarter than any other quarter last season.”

With the Broncos trying to develop a more tough-nosed, nasty running game, Schrader could be a fit as a late-round flyer.

(Top photo of J.J. McCarthy: Michael Hickey / Getty Images)